Hey Kingston,
I was going to respond, but Brent pretty much made my point. The only thing I have to say is that you were pointing to physical tools and their effectiveness on different people. The situation dictates the tactics, so that should not be a problem. For example, don't try to KO a 250 lb crack head--you won't be able to do it. The importance of scenarios is that they make you think on your feet--not use some pre-planned death kata that will leave you hurting after your ninja attacker doesn't respond the way they are supposed to.
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you practice this scenario over and over, different speeds, intensity, you end up being able to succesfully defend against the scenario practiced in training. Therefore it worked in training.
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The idea is not to repeat the scenario over and over. If one does this, the drill loses its benefit. A scenaio should be spontaneous and free-flowing.
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all of these things could seriously screw a person up when they are already scared/exited, and trying desperately to remember how they were trained wile they are being punched kicked by attackers...even such things as the defenders personal fears or prejudices, the fact is most white people consider people of a minority to be more likely to attack them, if they are more afraid of black looking people then japanese looking people this could also throw them off.
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Your prejudices CAN hurt you. Aside from that, your point about the randomness of real life points to the futility of learning set defensive patterns and responses. "If he does A, you do B" is destined to fail. Always. A good reality based teacher will impart principles. There are few laws in combat, and trying to adhere to what Sensei said can get you in some trouble. If you want to see a scenario done right, take a look at Richard Dimitri of Senshido or Sammy Franco of Contemporary Fighting Arts. They are at the top of the reality field, and have a lot of very solid and valuable info to impart.
Ryan