I really admire Renzo for stepping up to the plate on this Henderson fight. After the Sakuraba loss, alot of guys would have done a few tune up fights to rebuild their record. Of course, when you're a Gracie, tune up fights dont' always go the way you want (Royce v. Wallid).
That said, I don't really see what Renzo can do to Henderson. Is Renzo going to pull off a sub with Henderson in his guard? I think Henderson is too smart and experienced for that. I also think that bjj fighters are too conserative to pull a spectacular sub a la Frank Shamrock against Kevin Jackson.
Henderson will control where the fight goes. Renzo will not be able to take Henderson down. The fight will only go to the ground if Henderson wants it to. Another disadvantage for Renzo.
On striking, Henderson has been tagged more than a few times. But Renzo's striking has never impressed me. He can flick a jab out, but I don't think anyone is too concerned.
All in all, I give it too Henderson by decision.


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