Turkey, Iranian Style

Mike Brewer · 04-23-2008, 12:23 PM

It looks like we won't be able to count on Turkey to help contain Iranian ambitions in the Middle East.

From a third party source...

Quote:

Turkey and Iran will look to boost security cooperation during the 12th meeting of the Turkey-Iran High Security Commission in Ankara on April 14-18. The agenda is expected to be dominated by discussions about cooperation against violent rebel Kurdish groups: the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which targets Turkey, and the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), which is active in Iran.

The eight-member Iranian delegation is headed by Deputy Interior Minister Ali Akbar Mohtaj. The Turkish delegation will be led by Interior Minister Undersecretary Osman Gunes and is expected to include senior officials from the Turkish National Police, National Intelligence Organization (MIT), the Gendarmerie and the Turkish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. The previous meeting of the commission was held in Tehran in February 2006.

The commission was first established in 1988 but for the first decade of its existence was essentially moribund. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, elements from Iranian intelligence were in close contact with violent Turkish Islamists, providing them with arms and training in camps outside Tehran and using them to conduct surveillance and carry out attacks inside Turkey. The primary targets for Iranian intelligence were exiled Iranian dissidents. However, the Turkish Islamists trained in Iran also assassinated foreign diplomats stationed in Turkey, sometimes at their Iranian handlers' behest, as well as and prominent Turkish secularists. Although Tehran provided little support to the PKK, it tolerated the organization's activities inside Iran and offered a safe haven for PKK militants being pursued by the Turkish security forces.

It is now more than a decade, however, since violent Islamists with links to Iranian intelligence carried out attacks inside Turkey. Since the election of the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) in November 2002 and particularly since the establishment of PJAK in 2004, security cooperation has improved dramatically.

The precise agenda of the Turkey-Iran High Security Commission in Ankara is currently unclear. However, there is no doubt that both countries have sufficient reason to want to boost security cooperation against the PKK/PJAK. Yet Turkey will be eager to avoid jeopardizing its access to U.S. intelligence on PKK movements in northern Iraq by being seen to be cooperating too closely with Iran. For the United States, the dilemma is probably even more acute. It has no desire to encourage Turkey to cooperate more closely with Iran, least of all on an issue with possible repercussions for stability inside Iraq. Yet, while the PKK continues to pose a threat to Turkey's security, it is probably also unrealistic to expect Ankara's full cooperation in any future international isolation of the regime in Tehran. [Jenkins/Jamestown/14April2008]

Ghost · 04-23-2008, 12:47 PM

This all sucks man, Iran is such a cool place and they are so nice. I hope we dont have to go to war with them, i was actually thinking about a holiday there for a week next year.

Mike Brewer · 04-23-2008, 01:09 PM

Absolutely! The people there are great, and they've never been the problem at all. It's the leadership that causes everybody grief (including the Iranians). I've been saying for years that our very best bet with Iran is to work from the bottom up, cooperating with the people - who are largely pro-west, by the way - to effect internal, organic changes in the government.

Ghost · 04-23-2008, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Brewer

Absolutely! The people there are great, and they've never been the problem at all. It's the leadership that causes everybody grief (including the Iranians). I've been saying for years that our very best bet with Iran is to work from the bottom up, cooperating with the people - who are largely pro-west, by the way - to effect internal, organic changes in the government.

yeah the current government are a bunch of dicks.
I think if we can wait it out till they get a new guy in might be ok. You know how they are, its a few years of lunacy followed by a few years of someone moderate, then rinse and repeat.

Mike Brewer · 04-23-2008, 01:13 PM

The trouble is, guys like Khameini don't ever go away. They'e like Castro. Once they get power, they want to hold it forever. People tend to focus on Ahmadinejad because he's the mouthpiece and he's always talking so much shit, but he's just a puppet. Losing him won't make a bit of difference.

Ghost · 04-24-2008, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Brewer

The trouble is, guys like Khameini don't ever go away. They'e like Castro. Once they get power, they want to hold it forever. People tend to focus on Ahmadinejad because he's the mouthpiece and he's always talking so much shit, but he's just a puppet. Losing him won't make a bit of difference.

Iran was basically ok before he turned up though werent they?
I thought everything was fairly smooth till then, hardly even remember now.

All we need to do is change our energy source from oil to something else and the money will be gone, when the money goes there wont be so much resistance i expect. Besides, no one will be around to care if there is.

Mike Brewer · 04-24-2008, 06:01 AM

Iran was fine before we cocked everything up by messing around over there, I think. Its politics have always been a lot more complicated than its people. If we could somehow stay away from Iran's leaders and deal with her people, it'd be a different Middle East. I have a lot of hope though. Traditionally, the farther removed you get from a Revolution, the more receptive governments are to change. We're a generation away from the Iranian Revolution, and I imagine within another one or two, we'll see some changes in their government.

That is of course a gross over simplification, but I'm sure you catch my meaning.

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04-23-2008, 01:09 PM	#3 (permalink)
Mike Brewer Moderate Moderator Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 8,076	Absolutely! The people there are great, and they've never been the problem at all. It's the leadership that causes everybody grief (including the Iranians). I've been saying for years that our very best bet with Iran is to work from the bottom up, cooperating with the people - who are largely pro-west, by the way - to effect internal, organic changes in the government.

04-23-2008, 01:13 PM	#5 (permalink)
Mike Brewer Moderate Moderator Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 8,076	The trouble is, guys like Khameini don't ever go away. They'e like Castro. Once they get power, they want to hold it forever. People tend to focus on Ahmadinejad because he's the mouthpiece and he's always talking so much shit, but he's just a puppet. Losing him won't make a bit of difference.

04-24-2008, 06:01 AM	#7 (permalink)
Mike Brewer Moderate Moderator Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 8,076	Iran was fine before we cocked everything up by messing around over there, I think. Its politics have always been a lot more complicated than its people. If we could somehow stay away from Iran's leaders and deal with her people, it'd be a different Middle East. I have a lot of hope though. Traditionally, the farther removed you get from a Revolution, the more receptive governments are to change. We're a generation away from the Iranian Revolution, and I imagine within another one or two, we'll see some changes in their government. That is of course a gross over simplification, but I'm sure you catch my meaning.

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